The Economy Is Soft. But This Market Is About to Surge.
We’re in a weird spot. High interest rates, consumer hesitation, and a sluggish housing market have made growth feel like a grind for building product and home goods brands. Distributors are cautious. Retailers are over-inventoried. And marketing teams are being asked to do more with less.
This downturn is hiding a historic upswing. Don’t miss it.
Starting later in 2025, as mortgage rates stabilize and home equity reaches record levels, we’re poised to see a renovation super-cycle driven not by optimism, but by demographic inevitability. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) forecasts a 5% gain in residential remodeling activity in 2025, fueled by an aging housing stock and homeowners opting to renovate rather than relocate.
⚠️ THE OPPORTUNITY ISN’T JUST MACRO, IT’S MEASURABLE
Aging Housing Stock = Product Demand Spike
When 60% of U.S. homes are pushing 40+ years old, that’s not just a stat, it’s a structural pull on every category from roofing and siding to plumbing fixtures and HVAC. It means accelerating product replacement cycles, not hypotheticals. Think: core SKUs getting pulled through the channel without needing a demand-gen miracle.
Renovation > New Construction
New builds are bottlenecked by labor and policy. Renovation is the release valve. That means:
Your go-to-market must prioritize contractors, not just distributors.
SKUs suited for retrofit, fast install, and “while-we’re-at-it” projects are about to become your best growth levers.
$11.2 Trillion in Tappable Home Equity
This isn’t just economic optimism, it’s fuel for big-ticket upgrades. When HELOCs thaw, expect surges in spend on higher-margin products like windows, doors, surfaces, smart home systems, and more.
MOST BRANDS AREN’T READY
Here’s what I see in mid-market building product and home goods companies right now:
Channel chaos: Distributors are overloaded. Contractors are flying blind. Brand support is duct-taped together at best.
Misaligned GTM: Sales wants leads. Dealers want foot traffic. Marketing’s chasing impressions. No one’s mapping the full funnel.
Outdated brand narratives: Your messaging still speaks to a pre-pandemic buyer, not today’s equity-rich, mobility-stuck homeowner.
🔥 WHAT TO DO NEXT
If you're a $50–500M product brand sitting on underutilized demand, now is the time to fix your revenue engine. Here's how:
1. Realign your GTM to renovation
Shift positioning to solve renovation-specific pain points (e.g., ease of install, time to value, compatible with outdated infrastructure).
Arm your channel with homeowner-facing materials that actually get used, not just pretty brochures.
2. Support contractors like growth partners
Don’t just sell to them. Enable them. Provide lead-gen tools, financing education, and install training to make them faster and more profitable.
Track contractor LTV like you track distributor CAC. Long-term relationships here are worth gold.
3. Invest in full-funnel marketing. Fast
Drive homeowner demand through the channel. Use local digital, influencer content, and rebate programs that convert.
Combine sales revenue attribution with real CAC/LTV modeling (as outlined in your [Marketing ROI whitepaper]).
4. Map marketing to revenue, not activity
Marketing needs to prove it’s a profit center. If you can’t measure the lift from every campaign, you’re not ready for what’s coming.
✅ TL;DR: THE WINDOW IS WIDE OPEN
This isn’t a trend. It’s a demographic inevitability. The brands that align GTM to this renovation super-cycle will pull ahead. The rest? They'll miss the biggest growth wave in a generation.
If you're PE backed or mid-market home goods, consumer durables, or building products brand with aggressive growth goals this year, my whitepaper “Dominate the Downturn: 5 Strategies Determine Winners and Losers” is a must-read. It explores the strategies you need to implement today to take advantage of the Supercycle coming our way. You’ll learn:
👉 How to grow your market share and be prepared when the market returns
👉 Why your marketing dollars go 20-40% further right now
👉 How the "Empty Stage Effect" amplifies your visibility when competitors go quiet
👉 The trust advantage gained when you stay visible while others disappear
Want help rebuilding your GTM engine around this shift?
👋 Let’s do a teardown: Book your diagnostic
Sources:
1. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
Remodeling Market Poised for Growth as the Age of Owner-Occupied Homes Increases
URL: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2025/05/remodeling-market-poised-for-growth-as-the-age-of-owner-occupied-homes-increases
2. CBS News MoneyWatch
Home Equity Loan Interest Rate Forecast for 2025: What Borrowers Should Know
URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-equity-loan-interest-rate-forecast-april-2025
3. Freddie Mac – Housing Supply Data
Source referenced in Zach Williams’ LinkedIn post
URL: https://www.freddiemac.com
4. Home Depot Q1 2025 Earnings Call
Commentary by CEO Edward Decker
Summary mentioned in LinkedIn post and echoed by multiple financial outlets
5. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Remodeling Market Poised for Growth as the Age of Owner-Occupied Homes Increases – May 2025
URL: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2025/05/remodeling-market-poised-for-growth-as-the-age-of-owner-occupied-homes-increases
6. CBS News – MoneyWatch.
Home Equity Loan Interest Rate Forecast for April 2025
URL: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-equity-loan-interest-rate-forecast-april-2025